Surveys: how fair they are?

courtesy mysay.in

Questions are being raised on banning of pre poll surveys after expose of fudging the data in favour of any party in lieu of bribe. But is banning survey would this problem. Will it remove the other malpractices employed by political parties to win the elections? Corruption is so rampant in our society that banning surveys alone would not yield fair election. When large section of voters are happy to vote a candidate or party just by receiving few freebies like booze and few hundred rupees before the Election Day how one could expect that mere ban would bring honest and clean MLA/ MPs to assemblies/ parliament..

Now a day winning an Election is not as simple as in the days of Maurya and
Gupta’s period where genesis of Panchayti Raj system (or democracy) could be traced.
Shrewd politician have evolved a new management science for winning elections. It encompasses all types of propaganda, freebies, goons and even buying of pre/post poll alliance partner party or independent MLA/MPs. These all requires a lot of money so they indulged in corrupt practices after getting victory or say even to fight elections.  Favourable Surveys play only a small part in this newly developed Indian science.

Most importantly, surveys were always not proved correct even if we take expose of sting operation correct and presume that some agency had fudged the data in favour of any particular party. Just see back in your memory lane and try to recall results shown by media houses and various pollster agencies few months back. Baring one or two no one was nearing the number which Aam Aadmi Party had achieved in Delhi assembly election. However in other stats, results shown by them came nearly true. Simply survey methodologies used by Indian pollsters are not up to mark which could predict the correct outcome in results of elections. Surveys only create ripples in the poll river which could be turned into a wave and them into storms by electorates. I agree with those who are advocating ban that these fudged survey blow wind in favour of winning or upper hand parties among voters but with riders. Surely wind swing some confused voters towards parties which were painted as upper hand in survey results but these voters are very meager.

"Shrewd politician have evolved a new management science for winning elections. It encompasses all types of propaganda, freebies, goons and even buying of pre/post poll alliance partner party or independent MLA/MPs"

courtesy:exitopionpollindia

In conclusion, banning of surveys is not justifiable because of some bad fish. In democracy pondering on political parties, candidate and their performance is a must. It gives impetus to democracy. Instead of banning of surveys we could consider to set a regulator body under the aegis of Election Commission which consists of experts from the field. Expert could visit and revisit to the results published by media houses and poll survey agencies to verify the veracity of results and to find out any mal practices and collusions between the political parties, media houses and agency. Indeed with a provisions of sever punishment for the errant parties.

New buzz: Astrologer’s prediction

Has Congress accepted defeat without fighting general election?

I have heard a new buzz few days ago in the corridors of Congress.  few top leaders of Congress party have shown the birth chart of Narendra Modi to a prominent astrologer. Astrologer has predicted a ten years rule of Modi in New Delhi.

Why I am writing this buzz here? Because general election is only a number of days ahead and strangely war room of Congress party have yet not started functioning. What it means to pollsters? Clearly they do not see it as a good omen for a party which has ruled Raisina Hill last ten years.  Surprisingly coordinator and last time in-charge of war room Jairam Ramesh is still holding charge of Rural Development ministry as cabinet minister while in 2009 he had resigned immediately after February session.

Why Congress is showing apathetic attitude this time to coming general election internally? Has it presumed the imminent drubbing in 2014 general election after the rout it had faced in last year held assembly elections. This bizarre attitude of party could be understood more clearly if we could glance towards the recent developments in party.

One close aide of two prominent leaders of party has quieted his researcher’s job recently. Many more people associated with leaders are exploring their options. This all is happening when party is facing one of the toughest challenges in recent years posed by BJP’s prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi.

Last year in December I was told about state of affairs in war room by one of my source, which I think deserve to mention here. Team closely associated with Rahul Gandhi does not give due weights to findings of Gurudwara Rakab Ganj (GRG) office this time. GRG is an important war room office of Congress especially in election times. Instead of using input provided by GRG Rahul normally uses input provided by his own time I am told.

A new associate, Mohan Gopal has come this time close to Gandhi scion who works from a palatial office of Jawahar lal Bhawan situated in front of Shastri Bhawan. Along with this new lieutenant Rahul also has an important aide Mistry (party general secretary and in charge of Uttar Pradesh) who works from 24 Akbar Road, the Congress head quarter. 

Rahul has been giving more importance to his new team instead to old team which is close to Congress president Sonia Gandhi. This new team of Rahul is curtailing the wings of old generation’s leaders. However Jiaram Ramesh and Digvijay Singh are being still treated with responsibilities. This could be gauge by the fact that these dues are choosing the slogans of Congress posters.

   

Let’s hope for working lok sabha under Modi

no government would want to run Lok Sabha like the present one

Photo from HT

Today Times of India has summed up sessions of last five years of fifteenth lok sabha  in one line “ LOST SABHA: ALL DIN, LITTLE DONE”  This one line is sufficient to paint what types of commotion, ruckus, uproar, acquisition, allegation and counter allegation witnessed the current lok sabha during its tenure since 2009. Congress vice president Rahul Gandhi had attended only 42 percent of lok sabha sittings 5 percent less than his mother Sonia Gandhi who attended 47 percent of sittings. On the other side BJP veteran L K Advani, to whom Basudev Acharya rightly called yesterday as father of lok sabha, attended 96 percent of sittings along with leader of opposition Sushma Swaraj who also attended 94 percent of sittings. This shows the seriousness of leadership of ruling and principal opposition parties.  

In my last writing I had narrated how Congress vice president Rahul Gandhi was distributing chewing gum to his fellow young MPs when house was discussing crucial Telangana bill amid ruckus and slogan shouting by acrimonious MPs. This shows the apathy and disrespect of Rahul Gandhi towards the parliament and its practices by virtue of which he has been enjoying the privileges of VVIP culture. UPA government in its second innings was marked by mega scam, so commotion and slogan shouting by opposition benches is logical but raising slogans against its own party by MPs of ruling party is bizarre. 

Photo from NDTV

Sessions of fifteenth lok sabha were unique in many ways. First time a pepper spray was used to show anger against party leader by a rich and affluent MP from Seemandhra region. 79 percent of scheduled time lost in lok sabha due to disruptions by MPs. First time a black out in lok sabha TV was ordered to withheld the scenes of ruckus and hooliganism from the preview of commoners. That too when government of the day claims to have opened the door of information related to its activities. Similarly 73 percent of scheduled time was lost in elder’s house. Out going speaker Meira Kumar had given much emphasis to run the question hour in lok sabha but to her dismay only 11 percent of scheduled time for question hour was used. Further analysis of working of people house would bring more shady and black results. I’m sure, no honest and country loving member would love to remember this session of lok sabha.

Annoyed and confused Congress may use ordinance route to fulfill Rahul Gandhi wish. He had pushed for seven anti corruption bill which were pending in parliament recently to tackle challenges posed by Arvind Kejriwal and Aam Aadmi Party. Seeing the failure of social sector scheme in recently held assembly elections planners of Congress have changed strategy to fight coming lok sabha election. Crusade against corruption is the new mantra for Congress candidates.

Their body language show the differences

COMMOTION IN LS

Last few days of Lok sabha were very stormy. Every party and its members want to score few goals to show their voters to get their votes again to reelect. It is in particular true for Members of Congress who come from Seemandhra region of Andhra Pradesh. Their political future is in doldrums. Many political pundits have predicted their chances of reelection almost nil. Such predictions have forced them to defy every parliamentary tradition and to trash decorum of party in Lok sabha. Telangana bill has evaporated the fear of AALAKAMAN from the minds of MPs of Seemandhra region. They dared to challenge the power of Prime Minister and even to mother- son duo Sonia and Rahul. Despite clear intimidation and candid instructions all the Cabinet ministers and members of Congress party came in well to register their protest against the bill. Their body language showed their dejection and frustration. The emotion ran so high in them that even a shouting MP refused to budge cabinet minister’s request to come back from well.

MPs from other parties from the region had also shown similar sentiments before got suspension in the house. The morally low lot of MPs wants to show their voters about their concerns by practicing unparliamentarily things in the house. They want attention of cameraman so that their activities some how reach to their constituencies.

On the other hand BJP MPs are being seen as most disciplined lot in the running budget session. Their role of opposing the activities of government is being taken by the members of ruling party itself. I barely had seen any protest activity by members of BJP on act of government in the last week of session. To many it might be seen as a surprising thing but to me it shows their confidence which has built up over the days by the pre election surveys done by different news agencies in the past six months. It also comes out in the statements of leadership of BJP many of whom openly say about forming of next government in sixteenth lok sabha under the hegemony of Narendra Modi. Many leader of BJP have started talk arrogantly as if they are already in power.

RAHUL GANDHI IN LS

Congress MPs on the other hand are being seen as a lot which is going to loss its position of privilege.  Many political pundits see it a bad omen for a party which has ruled the country over five decades. Apathy of Congress leadership with party affairs is high. During the whole drama of passing the Telangana amendment bill in lok sabha Congress vice president was seen busy talking with few young MPs and distributing chewing gum to them. This shows the height of hallucination in which a party is living just before less than hundred days of next lok sabha election.

Honorable Arvind Kejriwal ji

Please learn to give respect to opponents also

Arvind Kejriwal Ji

Despite all fiasco of 49 days long AAP government I still like the logics and passions for corruption free India of Arvind Kejriwal. But I don’t like his way of addressing the opponents. His style of jargon hurts the inner heart and hits deep inside the mind.

It is a proven fact that Kejriwal’s opponents are not ordinary citizen of streets (and even if they are ordinary citizens of pavement then in that case also no one has right to insult by calling them in uncivilized manner). They are reputed persons of their fields. Be it politics or business world, it requires a lot of hard labor and time to achieve a certain level of status by virtue of which these people attracts respects from society.

Ex CM Kejriwal Ji

Unless and until courts of law give its verdict on matters of corruption one could not be treated as criminal and wrong doers. It is well established principle of constitution of India. No one could decide the criminality and punishment of an individual by oneself. There is a set procedure laid down in constitution for this purpose.

It gives me a lot of pain and agony when I hear unsolicited language of Kejriwal against big shots of major political parties or against business tycoon. May be it is because of culture in which I was born and bought up. Yes it is true that some time Kejriwal had called his opponents by giving respects also, but often he called opponents in insulting way.

I also understand the compulsion and logic behind his harsh language for opponents. By using unwarranted words for his opponents he actually tries to associate with the lower segment of society. There is always an antipathy for affluent class in downtrodden segment of society for whom Kejriwal is still a champion and hero. This section never dare to use abusive words for well to do segment. They always live in fear with this section. By barbing against so called corrupts Kejriwal connects to feelings with the poor who thinks that his share of developments were hampered by loots of top leaders of politics and business.

Ex CM Kejriwal Ji

I also know that newbie and fledgling AAP is now in politics to grab the hot seat of power. And in politics and war every thing is fair to show opponents down in eyes of voters. It is not only Kejriwal who is using this tactics to score good marks in the eyes of voters but other leaders of other parties are also using to brand sham to opponents which include Kejriwal and his party AAP. ‘When election battle is around it is pertinent to use abusive, lethal and blunt jargon is compulsion’ feel some pollsters. To some extent I agree with this thought but this principal applies to cheap politicians not to Arvind Kejriwal’s brand politician who could dare to sacrifice the chair of Chief Minister. At least I expect some decency from him in his colloquial language. 

SP base is shrinking in its bastion

A Ground zero report illuminates on prospect of NAMO in Uttar Pradesh

Mulayam Singh Yadav

Samajwadi Party and its supremo Mulayam Singh Yadav's (MSY) base is depleting in Uttar Pradesh. At least my talks with many people in Allahabad, Lucknow and Kanpur conclude this result.

To understand cast and religious equations of state it is better to fathom the ground equation properly. MSY or say his party (SP) has a strong hold on Yadavs and Muslims. SP always gets a major portion of votes of these two segments of state's society. Whenever party gets major vote shares of Kurmi, Koiri, Kushwaha, Rajbhar, and Patels along with Yadavs and Muslims in election it gets hold on assembly in Lucknow and good seats in Loksaabha. Because of supports of these casts and religious segment MSY had made his position strong in Loksabha and got ruling positions in Lucknow in the last assembly election held in state. But this time this story is not going to repeat in favour of SP especially in coming Loksabha election.

To my surprise even Yadav’s vote has got divided in states. Young generations of yadav clan are not happy in the way they get preferences and treatments over Muslim communities from Akhilesh government this time. All freebies distributed by present state government have been diverted towards Muslims. In the run up of coming Loksabha election it is a very natural process. Every party is using all gimmicks to woo Muslims. SP is not doing it alone. But this partiality is hurting to younger generation of Yadava cast who whole heartedly worked in the last assembly election to make sure Akhilesh government in Lucknow by dethroning garden and museum queen Mayawati’s BSP. Surprisingly this Yadava’s lot is considering voting Modi this time in Loksabha election to teach a hard lesson to SP government.

Narendra Modi

Yes it is true, older generation is still favouring to MSY. It is not because they still have faith left in MSY hegemony but because of no other options in hand. Like their younger generation they also want to elect Modi. But because of accessibility to first family of SP they want to remain faithful to SP in coming Loksabha election. Accessibility to Modi and top hierarchy of BJP would be not as easier as they have in present SP government feel older generation of Yadava.

To make heftier dent in prospects of SP and MSY in coming election some more cast have decided to use their votes in favour of Modi this time. Kurmi, Koiry, Kushwaha, Rajbhar, and Patels are among those backward casts who had swear last time to Akhilesh to remain faithful to SP. Many of whom I met candidly accepted to give chance to Modi this time belongs to these casts.

Traditional upper cast voters who had drifted towards SP and BSP in the past have shown inclination towards Modi this time. This section of society has once again reposed faith in BJP after a long gap. A large section of Brahmins, Rajputs and Kayastha communities are vociferously chanting Namo mantra. They all are saying give at least one chance to Modi to see his claims in reality on ground.

Mayawati

Even Muslims are divided to vote MSY’s party to centre. Many of Muslim community members I interacted had favoured BSP not SP. This section was in fidgety by the horrible reporting of Muzffarnagar riots. If number of this rattled section of Muslim community gets increase in coming week then result of coming election would certainly be sad for SP